MEMORY BUSINESS - NAND AND DRAM UPDATE, Q2 2019

Q2 2019: Memory business is approaching the bottom

Extracted from:
Status of the Memory Industry report, Yole Développement, 2019 Status of the Memory Industry report, Yole Développement, 2019
-  NAND Service – Memory Research & DRAM Service – Memory Research, Yole Développement, Q2, 2019
Leading-edge 3D NAND Memory Comparison – System Plus Consulting, 2018Leading-edge 3D NAND Memory Comparison – System Plus Consulting, 2018

OUTLINES:

  • Automotive memory business: companies are seriously considering investments and developments in this industry.
  • Autonomous vehicles are radically changing the memory requirements.
  • By 2024, the average NAND content in cars is expected to increase dramatically, exceeding 300 GB/vehicle.
  • DRAM should reach a 42% CAGR from 3.2GB per vehicle today to nearly 20GB per vehicle.
  • NAND market: quarterly revenue was US$10.1 billion in Q2 2019, down slightly from Q1-19 and down 35% year-over-year.
  • DRAM market: The DRAM market continued to decline in Q2 2019...


TO DOWNLOAD THE PRESS: 
ENGLISH

LYON, France – September 26, 2019: “Combined DRAM and NAND revenue was US$25.4 billion in Q2 2019, down 5% from Q1 and down 39% year-over-year as sluggish demand and elevated inventory levels continued to plague the memory markets”, announces Simone Bertolazzi, Memory Technology & Market Analyst at Yole Développement (Yole).
After the summer break, Yole Group of Companies including Yole, System Plus Consulting and KnowMade is pleased to come back to you with a detailed snapshot of the DRAM & NAND industries. This overview includes latest market figures and trends from Q2 2019. What are the latest news? What is the status of the market indicators? Is the market still growing? What are the revenues of each key memory players? What are their strategies, facing to the market evolution?… Memory analysts from Yole Group invite you to discover an up-to-date overview of this industry.
Megatrends are of course still present in this competitive landscape. The automotive is for example playing a key role. Even if the automotive memory business is still relatively small market segment with less than 3% of the overall stand-alone memory market in 2018, companies are seriously considering investments and developments in this industry. Therefore, driven by important technology trends, automotive is expected to be the fastest growing memory-market segment in the next 5 years. Memory analysts announce more than 20% CAGR between 2018 and 2024 (1) .
Autonomous vehicles are radically changing the memory requirements. By 2024, the average NAND content in cars is expected to increase dramatically, exceeding 300 GB/vehicle. Yole announces an impressive 79% CAGR between 2018 and 2024. Over the same period, DRAM should reach a 42% CAGR from 3.2GB per vehicle today to nearly 20GB per vehicle…
Without doubts, the wind of change is there. The market research & strategy consulting company Yole, presents for you today its quarterly snapshot of the DRAM & NAND industries extracted from NAND Service – Memory Research and DRAM Service – Memory Research, Q2 2019 figures.

NAND market: the worst will soon be behind you

“NAND market conditions remained soft in Q2 2019, with seasonally weak demand and abnormally high inventories keeping the pricing environment under downward pressure”, announces Walt Coon, VP of NAND and Memory Research and part of the Semiconductor & Software division at Yole.
Quarterly revenue was US$10.1 billion in Q2 2019, down slightly from Q1-19 and down 35% year-over-year. Blended NAND prices fell 13% from Q1-19, the sixth consecutive quarter of sequential price declines. Bit shipments were up 14% in the quarter.
NAND revenue-based market share rankings changed slightly in Q2 2019:
-  Samsung increased its market share leadership position to 37% of the total revenue, up 5 points from Q1 2019.
-  Toshiba Memory held the second position with 19% of total revenue, followed by Western Digital at 14%
-  SK hynix market share was 11%, overtaking
Micron at 10% for the 4th position Micron at 10% for the 4th position
Intel accounted for 8% of industry revenue, while the remaining players accounted for less than 1% of NAND industry revenue. Intel accounted for 8% of industry revenue, while the remaining players accounted for less than 1% of NAND industry revenue.
Although NAND inventory remains elevated, several suppliers were able to reduce inventory levels in the quarter. The power outage at Toshiba Memory’s Yokkaichi facility late in the second quarter will reduce industry production, helping to accelerate inventory declines. Normalizing inventory levels, rising seasonal demand, and impacts from prior utilization and capex cuts provides hope for a likely recovery in the second half of 2019 and an improved 2020 outlook.

The DRAM market: winter has come

 The DRAM market continued to decline in Q2 2019. Quarterly revenue fell 11.4% in Q2 2019, to US$15.3 billion. Prices fell 20.7% during the quarter, marking three consecutive quarters that prices have fallen. Revenue would have fallen much more had shipments not grown 16.3% for the quarter. The strong growth in shipments was in stark contrast to Q1 2019 when shipments fell 3%.
The market shares of the DRAM triumvirate (Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron) remained largely unchanged in Q2 2019 although Samsung did pick up 2% of market share while SK hynix and Micron each surrendered 1%. Given the capital expenditure plans for 2019 and 2020 we do not expect significant shifts in manufacturing market share this year.
“While we still anticipate several more quarters with falling prices, the recovery is coming into clearer focus”, details Mike Howard, VP of DRAM & Memory Research at Yole. “Prices are expected to fall 45% in 2019 and continue falling in early 2020 before prices begin climbing in mid-2020.”

Memory business: what’s next?

Last summer, Yole’s memory team was pleased to welcome the leading memory companies at the 1st Executive Memory event powered by Yole: Memory industry: What could happen in the future?
During few hours, memory companies and Yole’s analysts had the opportunity to exchange and debate about the latest technical and market trends. They commented the strategy of each leading players and identified business opportunities.
In addition, the latest technology & market report, MRAM Technology and Business 2019, has been launched during the FMS week, beginning of August. MRAM promises life beyond eFlash: the embedded MRAM market is taking off and is expected to reach $1.2B by 2024.
For more info, click on MRAM industry overview
The Q2 2019 Memory Monitor is also now available: DRAM Service – Memory Research and NAND Service – Memory Research.

Stay tuned on i-Micronews.com!

(1) Source : Status of the Memory Industry report, Yole Développement, 2019

Acronym:
CAGR : Compound Annual Growth Rate


Connect with us


About the monitors:

Newsletter subscription

About Yole Développement